It's a hard one to call for the length of time to the tipping point between ICE cars & BEV's but the powers that be want to speed up that equation. The ETS (emission trading system) i'e. carbon pricing is at record levels & if it was linked to the road transport & buildings ETS it would put 80p/gallon on petrol & diesel right now.
The SMMT said new car registrations for January 2022 were 1 in 3 new car registrations were electrified & set to grow exponentially this year.
The UK has it's own ETS since the 'B' word but is still intertwined with the EU ETS standards & underpins all these emission standards. In fact the UK's ETS is more strict than the EU's
The 'Fit for 55' policy (have a look up on that it doesn't make for good reading) has gone back to the drawing board to be amended regards the road transport & buildings ETS from 2026.
It just depends on how much you're willing to pay for a gallon of petrol or diesel in the coming years. I've been reading/following this stuff since 2015 as the disruption is going to be huge.
"As part of its Fit for 55 proposals, the European Commission has proposed including the road transport and buildings sectors into the bloc’s carbon market from 2026 (known as the Emissions Trading System “ETS2”). Fuel suppliers like Total and Shell would need to buy pollution permits for each litre of fuel they put on the market. As the market is currently designed, they could then pass this cost on entirely to end-consumers. This could disproportionately impact poorer citizens driving their cars or heating their homes."
"Carbon pricing for road transport and buildings is necessary to ensure the EU meets its 2030 climate targets, as it will reduce the demand for fossil fuels and private cars[1]. But the burden shouldn’t only fall upon the consumer."
https://www.transportenvironment.org...nalysis-shows/