get ready for fuel rationing soon! - Page 5

martin green · 12th February 2011, 19:12

or you can have this one also

cheap oil is over get ready for bounty bidding

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/pe...for-/19837213/

you can ignore at your peril.

windrush · 12th February 2011, 19:18

Mintee is right we heard all this in the 1970s and the shortage of oil was likely to cause wars between the super powers

martin green · 12th February 2011, 19:22

Hi Windrush, that was different then we had spare capacity, there is none today..the tolerance buffers are gone, and there no oils wars currently in fact a recession, so why the super high prices and changing weekly to even higher ones?

These articles are all to read and there are many of them...the prices are on the move to higher ground because the bidding wars have already started and the government knows this.

PS mate are you going to Longbridge then?

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/...phe-in-waiting

This article is an update on the peak oil situation at the beginning of 2011 and a follow-up to my many previous pieces on peak oil (one with Nobel Prize winner Walter Kohn).

a summary of oil price forecasts for 2011, selecting for their summary those forecasters who have the most accurate track records. The dominant view was that average oil prices will rise almost as high in 2011 as seen in 2008 – to $87 a barrel for the year as a whole (the average price for 2008 was $99). It’s likely, however, that the actual average 2011 price will be significantly higher because we are already over this price at about $90 a barrel in early January and the large majority of economic forecasts project a robust global recovery this year, with attendant increases in oil demand.

More anecdotally, but with perhaps more impact because of its source, Shell’s recent ex-president John Hofmeister predicts $5 gas by 2012 due to the global economic recovery and very tight supply.

A number of comprehensive reviews of the global oil supply situation have appeared in the last year.

Lloyds and Chatham House: “We are heading towards a global oil supply crunch and price spike.” “A supply crunch appears likely around 2013… given recent price experience, a spike in excess of $200 per barrel is not infeasible

The BRITISH GOVERNMENT VIEW AND ACTIONS

The same article reports on secret British government planning for peak oil: “The leak has parallels with recent reports from the UK. Only last week the Guardian newspaper reported that the British Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is keeping documents secret which show the UK government is far more concerned about an impending supply crisis than it cares to admit. According to the Guardian, the DECC, the Bank of England and the British Ministry of Defence are working alongside industry representatives to develop a crisis plan to deal with possible shortfalls in energy supply.”
The UK’s Industry Task Force on Peak Oil and Energy Security (a non-governmental group) issued its second major report on peak oil in late 2010, concluding: “[W]e face a situation during the [next few years] where fuel price unrest could lead to shortages in consumer products and the UK’s energy security will be significantly compromised. This has the potential to hit UK business and commerce as well as the most disadvantaged in society with yet another crisis.”

martin green · 12th February 2011, 19:35

FURTHER UPDATES

In August of 2009, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the official energy watchdog for the western world, was even more strident in its warnings. The UK’s Independent newspaper reported:

The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned.

Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could blow any recovery off course, said Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries.

Later in 2009, two IEA whistleblowers went public and claimed that the situation was even worse than the IEA was stating publicly. The UK’s Guardian newspaper reported in November of 2009: “A … senior IEA source, who has now left but was … unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organization was that it was ‘imperative not to anger the Americans’ but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as has been admitted. ‘We have (already) entered the ‘peak oil’ zone. I think that the situation is really bad,’ he added.”

IEA has changed its public tune yet again, however. IEA’s 2010 World Energy Outlook (WEO), a major forecast released each year, apparently ignored the IEA’s own previous analysis by reverting to its previous policy of simply assuming – literally – that projected petroleum demand will be met with the needed supply. IEA states in WEO 2010: “Energy prices ensure that projected supply and demand are in balance throughout the Outlook period in each scenario….” In other words, IEA simply assumes that supply will meet demand due to market forces. This is obviously true at a very basic level: supply will always match demand if we define demand as that which is actually consumed. But if we define demand instead as the desired oil consumption, all else being equal, we reach a very different conclusion – far more in line with the US JOE report that projects a possible 10 million barrel per day shortfall by 2015.

WEO 2010 does, however, include some discussion of peak oil and it projects that the 2006 peak in global conventional oil production will never be exceeded (p. 8 of the Exec. Summary). That is, IEA has officially concluded that 2006 was the annual peak for conventional oil production. We are, accordingly, past the point of peak oil if we define this term to include only conventional oil.

Even based on official IEA projections (which are likely far too rosy considering the whistleblower claims), we have a major problem facing us, made clear by the chart below. The key point from this chart is that IEA thinks we’ve already passed the peak for global conventional oil production, as just mentioned. As a consequence, a huge amount of new oil must be found to replace declining conventional oil production – a deficit of about 75 million barrels per day by 2035. This is equivalent to nine new Saudi Arabias coming online by 2035 (Saudi Arabia currently produces about 8 million barrels per day).

IEA projects (Figure 2) that this new oil will come from a combination of new conventional oil production, from known fields yet to be developed and fields not even found yet; from natural gas liquids; and from unconventional oil like tar sands and oil shale.

Mintee · 12th February 2011, 19:37

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