House prices.

[VVC-Geeza]

Following the huge increase in house prices over the last year (13% so I have read) I wondered what people's predictions are for the next 2-3 years. Will this Boom be followed by Bust as has happended on previous occasions?

The economy is still being artificially supported by Furlow,self employment grants,stamp duty holidays and sustained record low interest rates.Once these incentives have been removed and things return to "normal",will the housing market come crashing down?Personally I think it would only take one or two interest rate rises for some to find themselves overstreched and in difficulty.

What do you think?

[richw]

The economy is pretty fake, but has been for a while. Furlough etc. is a massive crutch, but ask yourself what was actually changed since the 2008 disaster? Very little. And was the 'Blair boom' real? Lots of house price inflation (consumer inflation measures vs. Interest rates, plus crazy lending) enabling people to spend spend spend. And the increased public sector. All on the never never.

Now we have rampant currency devaluation. You are seeing real tangible things rocketing in price.

Is it incompetence, or is it deliberate? Will 'central bank digital currencies' be painted as the saviour? I hope not.. Just imagine your bank account linked to social credit. Yikes.

[VVC-Geeza]

Originally Posted by richw

The economy is pretty fake, but has been for a while. Furlough etc. is a massive crutch, but ask yourself what was actually changed since the 2008 disaster? Very little. And was the 'Blair boom' real? Lots of house price inflation (consumer inflation measures vs. Interest rates, plus crazy lending) enabling people to spend spend spend. And the increased public sector. All on the never never.

Now we have rampant currency devaluation. You are seeing real tangible things rocketing in price.

Is it incompetence, or is it deliberate? Will 'central bank digital currencies' be painted as the saviour? I hope not.. Just imagine your bank account linked to social credit. Yikes.

This latest property boom has been quite deliberately fueled by government according to informed sources.

[SCP440]

A friend in finance was saying only last week he reckons the balloon is going to burst soon, a few months ago he could get finance on property that would allow them to borrow at 100% but now its between 50% and 75%. This means if a valuation on your property says you have 50k worth of equity in your property you can borrow 25k.

He is also struggling on mortgages near the max multiplication on people wages, he had a few fail safes on what he would call marginals but now even these are saying they need to be safe.

He was also saying if we get a few more months at high inflation will the chancellor be forced to raise interest rates? That will cripple a lot of people who have got used to these low interest rates.

I hope he is wrong as we have all got used to these low interest rates and the benefits of it.

[macafee2]

How many years do you want to go back to find what house prices have done?
Peaks and troughs but they have overall gone north.
For those looking to buy or sell the value is important, for those not looking to move or borrow against it, does it matter what your house is worth?

I would expect a reduction of prices for those houses on the market due to the stamp duty holiday coming to an end but I am not sure how long that will last befoe prices go up, I guess watch the employment and economic figures. July apparently and not surprisingly saw a reduction in house price value but August saw an increase.
Depending on where you look the average house price is "£250,000"
A problem for some would be a reduction in house price along with unemployment, losing the house and still owing money.

When it comes to savings, covid has shown how little money some people have for a rainy day.
I don't worry if my house value goes up or down, it is my home and I am not looking to sell or borrow against it so it does not matter.

macafee2

[SCP440]

Originally Posted by macafee2

When it comes to savings, covid has shown how little money some people have for a rainy day.
I don't worry if my house value goes up or down, it is my home and I am not looking to sell or borrow against it so it does not matter.

macafee2

Yes exactly, a lot of people live from each pay packet and have little or no savings. I hate to think what will happen to these people when they no longer have a wage coming in and there pension is only a fraction of what they are used to earning.

One of my neighbours falls into the above category, they live on credit and my guess both of there cars are on PCP or some other drive and pay scheme, he is supposed to be retiring in 18 months and I feel they are both in for a big shock unless an old rely is going to leave them a nice inheritance soon. I suppose they can fall back on one of these schemes that allows them to borrow against there house but that will mean there kids will end up with nothing.

.

[VVC-Geeza]

Originally Posted by macafee2

How many years do you want to go back to find what house prices have done?
Peaks and troughs but they have overall gone north.
For those looking to buy or sell the value is important, for those not looking to move or borrow against it, does it matter what your house is worth?

I would expect a reduction of prices for those houses on the market due to the stamp duty holiday coming to an end but I am not sure how long that will last befoe prices go up, I guess watch the employment and economic figures. July apparently and not surprisingly saw a reduction in house price value but August saw an increase.
Depending on where you look the average house price is "£250,000"
A problem for some would be a reduction in house price along with unemployment, losing the house and still owing money.

When it comes to savings, covid has shown how little money some people have for a rainy day.
I don't worry if my house value goes up or down, it is my home and I am not looking to sell or borrow against it so it does not matter.

macafee2

Well Ian,knowing that you have recently moved,I would expect you to have first hand experience of the eye watering increase in house prices.Hopefully you managed to offset this by the increase in price of the one you sold.I've a feeling you didn't require finance for your new house but for the thousands who did move needing a mortgage they could find themselves in trouble if covid,rising interest rates and unemployment start to bite.

[macafee2]

Originally Posted by VVC-Geeza

Well Ian,knowing that you have recently moved,I would expect you to have first hand experience of the eye watering increase in house prices.Hopefully you managed to offset this by the increase in price of the one you sold.I've a feeling you didn't require finance for your new house but for the thousands who did move needing a mortgage they could find themselves in trouble if covid,rising interest rates and unemployment start to bite.

I had to add a few thousand due to moving costs, estate agent fees and solicitors costs but I bought for £15,000 less then I sold for but still paid about £20,000 more then its worth due to a bidding war and nothing else fitted the bill. I cant say I noticed house prices being unusually high as I did not buy like for like but bought a bigger place up north.
Did any potential saving on stamp duty just get added to the house price so the sellers won, buyers drew?
I never noticed the weight on my shoulders of a mortgage until it was paid off and the weight I did not know about lifted, it was a relief

macafee2