How long before we're priced off the road

donc · 5th January 2021, 22:00

I wonder how long before the government penalises our car emmisions so that it's no longer viable to run them. So many cars are available now with zero tax or tax at £30 a year. It's getting more and more tempting to change do you think?

Typhoon190 · 5th January 2021, 22:10

Unfortunately your right. Road fund license for these modern classics will always be increased, especially if the government is 'giving' it away on so called zero emissions vehicle. Transferring the pollution elsewhere rather than directly from the vehicle magically makes irrelevant, obviously.

Steamdrivenandy · 6th January 2021, 06:35

I'm not so sure that the government will need to make VED that draconian on modern classics that it makes them untenable. The current tax incentives seem to be working, pushing the herd into the dead end of hybrid vehicles and full EV's slightly less so. This probably means the tax differentials don't need to get any bigger to put a stop to demand for new pure ic cars.

With a legal requirement to stop selling pure ic cars in 9 years time and 'improvements' in hybrid and EV cars due into production over that period the ratio of new electric to ic will increase over the period, such that by 2029 there'll be very few ic sold. So the overall fleet of ic cars will start diminishing fairly soon and the natural withering of that fleet will ensure few remain by 2040 and therefore their emissions will be neither here nor there in the great scheme of things. So the need to try and remove the remaining few from the roads becomes immaterial in terms of emission reduction, rather like heritage steam railways.

Again, rather like steam railways the problem for people running such vehicles may not be draconian tax rates, but rather the lack of, in steam railways case, suitable coal and in ic cars the lack of places to refuel. Ironically the very same issue that is holding back the wider adoption of pure EV cars right now.

SCP440 · 6th January 2021, 07:13

If any of these cars make it to 40 years the tax will be free. I am sure there will always be fuel available in some form, there are 1.5 million classic cars on the UK roads and many of these are worth a lot of money.

There is talk at the moment of some sort of synthetic fuel being the thing we might have to use, I am sure cars will need modifying to use it but better than just scrapping them. One article I was reading was talking about adding Hydrogen to captured Carbon so it was technically carbon neutral.

My guess it wont be a problem in our lifetime, petrol stations as we know them will still be here for at least another 20 years and even then I am sure most towns will still have at least one or a place that sells it for another 10 or more years after that. By then I expect most of us will not be worrying about cars. Petrol might even get cheaper as less people use it, look what happened in lockdown one.

My guess it will be where we can go is more of a problem, some cities are already charging for ICE vehicles to enter them, if you only go to a city occasionally it wont be a problem but if they ban the use of ICE vehicles in cities what will we do then?

Steamdrivenandy · 6th January 2021, 07:42

Of course the bigger issue is what will the government do about the enormous reduction in tax revenue resulting from the move from oil based fuel to electric. It's probably not politically possible to increase tax on electricity, given its myriad of other uses and increasing tax on oil based fuels whose consumption is falling anyway won't earn anywhere near enough.

So some form of mileage based taxing, or a massive increase in VED that will affect all vehicles, so the difference between EV and classic ic will make little difference?

Nick91 · 6th January 2021, 12:46

Does anyone know how much, say, my 2.5 V6 would have been to tax back in 2004? I've scoured the internet but to no avail. I roughly remember vehicle tax costs from back then and I think when you factor in inflation, it has certainly gone up but not through the roof.

In relation to the future, I think as one member mentioned, there's not much point in going after the "classic" car enthusiasts. For one, they are a small (but very vocal) minority and crippling tax hikes on older cars won't bring in much cash nor save the world, but will be deeply unpopular. Just about every bloke of a certain age gets the classic car bug, even if they never follow through with the idea, it's still nice to know that it's possible. More likely they will introduce pay-per-mile taxing as has been raised recently.

Before EV's, I never understood why they didn't just scrap car tax and increase the price at the pump. It's totally fair and takes everything into account, what car you buy, how much you drive, style of driving etc.

KWIL · 6th January 2021, 14:06

£190 in 2007 is the best I can offer.

If fuel had been taxed (even) more at the pump then the VED dodgers could not have avoided paying it like they do now. There are many millions of VED and insurance dodgers waiting to be caught.

torque2me · 6th January 2021, 14:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nick91

Does anyone know how much, say, my 2.5 V6 would have been to tax back in 2004? I've scoured the internet but to no avail. I roughly remember vehicle tax costs from back then and I think when you factor in inflation, it has certainly gone up but not through the roof.

I don't have a definitive answer but my journal shows £195 - £205.

Kev

Steamdrivenandy · 6th January 2021, 15:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWIL

£190 in 2007 is the best I can offer.

If fuel had been taxed (even) more at the pump then the VED dodgers could not have avoided paying it like they do now. There are many millions of VED and insurance dodgers waiting to be caught.

Government estimates say that around 700,000 vehicles are untaxed and he insurance industry estimates that about a million are uninsured. Given that you need insurance to get taxed, one or other of them has to be wrong to the tune of 300,000.

Whatever, it's 2% or slightly under the total on the roads. However, given that police vehicles and surveillance cameras can easily link to insurance and DVLA databases I don't understand how so many are supposedly getting away with it?

AndyN01 · 6th January 2021, 20:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steamdrivenandy

....... However, given that police vehicles and surveillance cameras can easily link to insurance and DVLA databases I don't understand how so many are supposedly getting away with it?

Cameras can take photos but you need people and a "political will" from on high to follow it up and a judicial system that treats it seriously so the the punishment is a true deterrent.

If it were a 95%+ certainty of being "caught" within 2-3 minutes of passing a camera and with the driver/vehicle instantly impounded I wonder how quickly the uninsured/untaxed drivers/vehicles would vanish from our roads?

But just think of the cost of the resources the accountants would cry......

Just like cameras can take photos of speeding motorists but do nothing about drunk or drugged drivers, drivers using their phone etc. etc.

5th January 2021, 22:00	#1
donc Avid contributor Rover 75 Join Date: Sep 2018 Location: Kirk Ella Posts: 141 Thanks: 9 Thanked 43 Times in 14 Posts	How long before we're priced off the road I wonder how long before the government penalises our car emmisions so that it's no longer viable to run them. So many cars are available now with zero tax or tax at £30 a year. It's getting more and more tempting to change do you think?

6th January 2021, 06:35	#3
Steamdrivenandy Avid contributor Thinking on Join Date: Oct 2020 Location: Madeley, Staffs Posts: 188 Thanks: 31 Thanked 37 Times in 25 Posts	I'm not so sure that the government will need to make VED that draconian on modern classics that it makes them untenable. The current tax incentives seem to be working, pushing the herd into the dead end of hybrid vehicles and full EV's slightly less so. This probably means the tax differentials don't need to get any bigger to put a stop to demand for new pure ic cars. With a legal requirement to stop selling pure ic cars in 9 years time and 'improvements' in hybrid and EV cars due into production over that period the ratio of new electric to ic will increase over the period, such that by 2029 there'll be very few ic sold. So the overall fleet of ic cars will start diminishing fairly soon and the natural withering of that fleet will ensure few remain by 2040 and therefore their emissions will be neither here nor there in the great scheme of things. So the need to try and remove the remaining few from the roads becomes immaterial in terms of emission reduction, rather like heritage steam railways. Again, rather like steam railways the problem for people running such vehicles may not be draconian tax rates, but rather the lack of, in steam railways case, suitable coal and in ic cars the lack of places to refuel. Ironically the very same issue that is holding back the wider adoption of pure EV cars right now. __________________ Morris 8 S2 Convertible, Fiat 500C Topolino, 105E Anglia, 1071 Austin Cooper S, MK 3 Cortina, Mk 2 Escorts, Renault 6, Renault 12, Maestro, Talbot Alpine, Citroen BX19, Vauxhall Carltons, Ford Mondeos, RAV4, Volvo 850, Octavia Est., Yaris Verso, Transit Camper, Adria motorhome, Kia Sorento, Kia Cee'd Est., Volvo V70, Yeti, Skoda Scala but where will it end? Last edited by Steamdrivenandy; 6th January 2021 at 06:37..

6th January 2021, 07:42	#5
Steamdrivenandy Avid contributor Thinking on Join Date: Oct 2020 Location: Madeley, Staffs Posts: 188 Thanks: 31 Thanked 37 Times in 25 Posts	Of course the bigger issue is what will the government do about the enormous reduction in tax revenue resulting from the move from oil based fuel to electric. It's probably not politically possible to increase tax on electricity, given its myriad of other uses and increasing tax on oil based fuels whose consumption is falling anyway won't earn anywhere near enough. So some form of mileage based taxing, or a massive increase in VED that will affect all vehicles, so the difference between EV and classic ic will make little difference? __________________ Morris 8 S2 Convertible, Fiat 500C Topolino, 105E Anglia, 1071 Austin Cooper S, MK 3 Cortina, Mk 2 Escorts, Renault 6, Renault 12, Maestro, Talbot Alpine, Citroen BX19, Vauxhall Carltons, Ford Mondeos, RAV4, Volvo 850, Octavia Est., Yaris Verso, Transit Camper, Adria motorhome, Kia Sorento, Kia Cee'd Est., Volvo V70, Yeti, Skoda Scala but where will it end?

6th January 2021, 12:46	#6
Nick91 Regular poster Rover 75 Join Date: Jan 2021 Location: Midlands Posts: 35 Thanks: 2 Thanked 12 Times in 7 Posts	Does anyone know how much, say, my 2.5 V6 would have been to tax back in 2004? I've scoured the internet but to no avail. I roughly remember vehicle tax costs from back then and I think when you factor in inflation, it has certainly gone up but not through the roof. In relation to the future, I think as one member mentioned, there's not much point in going after the "classic" car enthusiasts. For one, they are a small (but very vocal) minority and crippling tax hikes on older cars won't bring in much cash nor save the world, but will be deeply unpopular. Just about every bloke of a certain age gets the classic car bug, even if they never follow through with the idea, it's still nice to know that it's possible. More likely they will introduce pay-per-mile taxing as has been raised recently. Before EV's, I never understood why they didn't just scrap car tax and increase the price at the pump. It's totally fair and takes everything into account, what car you buy, how much you drive, style of driving etc. Last edited by Nick91; 6th January 2021 at 12:51.. Reason: I said insure, I meant tax.

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5th January 2021, 22:10	#2
Typhoon190 This is my second home MG ZT-T 190 Monogram Typhoon Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Oxfordshire Posts: 4,704 Thanks: 328 Thanked 557 Times in 443 Posts	Unfortunately your right. Road fund license for these modern classics will always be increased, especially if the government is 'giving' it away on so called zero emissions vehicle. Transferring the pollution elsewhere rather than directly from the vehicle magically makes irrelevant, obviously.

6th January 2021, 07:13	#4
SCP440 I really should get out more....... MG ZT-T 260 Join Date: Feb 2016 Location: Witney Posts: 2,504 Thanks: 6 Thanked 910 Times in 571 Posts	If any of these cars make it to 40 years the tax will be free. I am sure there will always be fuel available in some form, there are 1.5 million classic cars on the UK roads and many of these are worth a lot of money. There is talk at the moment of some sort of synthetic fuel being the thing we might have to use, I am sure cars will need modifying to use it but better than just scrapping them. One article I was reading was talking about adding Hydrogen to captured Carbon so it was technically carbon neutral. My guess it wont be a problem in our lifetime, petrol stations as we know them will still be here for at least another 20 years and even then I am sure most towns will still have at least one or a place that sells it for another 10 or more years after that. By then I expect most of us will not be worrying about cars. Petrol might even get cheaper as less people use it, look what happened in lockdown one. My guess it will be where we can go is more of a problem, some cities are already charging for ICE vehicles to enter them, if you only go to a city occasionally it wont be a problem but if they ban the use of ICE vehicles in cities what will we do then?

6th January 2021, 14:06	#7
KWIL Precise Rover 75 Tourer 2.5KV6 Connoisseur SE Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Fleet Posts: 2,952 Thanks: 630 Thanked 617 Times in 480 Posts	£190 in 2007 is the best I can offer. If fuel had been taxed (even) more at the pump then the VED dodgers could not have avoided paying it like they do now. There are many millions of VED and insurance dodgers waiting to be caught.