Exchange rate predictions

Kai Herb · 6th May 2010, 06:28

I just want to gather peoples opinions on the direction that the Euro is going to go against Stirling.

We are off to France for two weeks in July so need to get some spending money converted into Euros.

So at the moment its sitting around the 1.16 rate (the highest its been for a couple of years) , with the meltdown going on in Greece do people think the Euro will devalue any more ?

Regards

Steve

Kai Herb · 6th May 2010, 06:38

Sorry ive just noticed that ive posted this in the wrong section

stevemac · 6th May 2010, 06:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kai Herb

I just want to gather peoples opinions on the direction that the Euro is going to go against Stirling.

We are off to France for two weeks in July so need to get some spending money converted into Euros.

So at the moment its sitting around the 1.16 rate (the highest its been for a couple of years) , with the meltdown going on in Greece do people think the Euro will devalue any more ?

Regards

Steve

If there is a hung Parliament I think the pound will also take a dive, certainly against the dollar. I suppose the rate could stay around the same if both the Euro and Sterling bomb. I did hear a prediction that the Euro won't survive, especially if Spain and Portugal also get into trouble.

Noel · 6th May 2010, 08:29

Financial expert from the Japanese bank Nomura was on Breakfast time this morning suggesting a possible domino effect with any one or more of the following countries, Portugal, Spain and Italy going the same way financially as Greece. Looks likely the Euro will sink even further in the short term but as previously posted a hung Parliament will then counter balance things to a degree with the pound also weakening, bit of a catch 22 really. Need to hope one of the political parties win control outright and then sit tight for a week or so and watch the markets attack the Euro. But then there is the risk as previously posted that the Euro then may not survive, bit of a ctach 22 really.

Bernard LPG · 6th May 2010, 11:02

Compared to the price rises in France over the last couple of years then a few cents on the euro are as nothing.

Martin75 · 6th May 2010, 11:43

Technically, just as with other currencies the Euro is only a promissory note. The factors effecting value principalise around the issuers ability to validate that contract.

Problem is the Euro has such a diverse realm of Economies as backers. Contemporaneously, as enjoined countries individually reveal their parlous state of debt, the multiple liability for the rest increases exponentially. Exactly similar to acting as a joint and several guarantor. If your fellow warrantors fall away, you can eventually inherit the total obligation.

Euro-bond debt, a corollary of heaping up deficits into IOU's, could well bring many European and UK banks into crisis, with their already skinny balance sheets further ravaged. Inevitably Governments may have to bail out this debt, one way or another. The costs involved, then degrade the individual remaining participants in the Euro and the macro problem becomes kinetic.

With the perilous state of Spain, Portugal and Ireland's economies, for the rest teetering on the edge, the fall looms larger. The Euro is literally on the rack, it's current status survival, may inevitably depend upon the depths of Angela Murkel's handbag, or more likely, devaluation by the new term for printing money, 'Quantative Easing'.

6th May 2010, 06:28	#1
Kai Herb Gets stuck in MG ZTT+ 2.5 160 Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: North Devon ish Posts: 743 Thanks: 0 Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post	Exchange rate predictions I just want to gather peoples opinions on the direction that the Euro is going to go against Stirling. We are off to France for two weeks in July so need to get some spending money converted into Euros. So at the moment its sitting around the 1.16 rate (the highest its been for a couple of years) , with the meltdown going on in Greece do people think the Euro will devalue any more ? Regards Steve

6th May 2010, 06:38	#2
Kai Herb Gets stuck in MG ZTT+ 2.5 160 Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: North Devon ish Posts: 743 Thanks: 0 Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post	Sorry ive just noticed that ive posted this in the wrong section

6th May 2010, 08:29	#4
Noel Regular poster Rover 75 2.0 Conn. Join Date: May 2008 Location: Ebbw Vale Posts: 46 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Financial expert from the Japanese bank Nomura was on Breakfast time this morning suggesting a possible domino effect with any one or more of the following countries, Portugal, Spain and Italy going the same way financially as Greece. Looks likely the Euro will sink even further in the short term but as previously posted a hung Parliament will then counter balance things to a degree with the pound also weakening, bit of a catch 22 really. Need to hope one of the political parties win control outright and then sit tight for a week or so and watch the markets attack the Euro. But then there is the risk as previously posted that the Euro then may not survive, bit of a ctach 22 really.

6th May 2010, 11:02	#5
Bernard LPG I really should get out more....... 75 V6 Saloon 2003 LPG MGZT V8 260 LPG Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Evesham Posts: 2,134 Thanks: 0 Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post	Compared to the price rises in France over the last couple of years then a few cents on the euro are as nothing.

6th May 2010, 11:43	#6
Martin75 Loves to post Rover 75 CDti Auto Saloon 2004 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: North Essex Coast Posts: 489 Thanks: 4 Thanked 5 Times in 1 Post	Technically, just as with other currencies the Euro is only a promissory note. The factors effecting value principalise around the issuers ability to validate that contract. Problem is the Euro has such a diverse realm of Economies as backers. Contemporaneously, as enjoined countries individually reveal their parlous state of debt, the multiple liability for the rest increases exponentially. Exactly similar to acting as a joint and several guarantor. If your fellow warrantors fall away, you can eventually inherit the total obligation. Euro-bond debt, a corollary of heaping up deficits into IOU's, could well bring many European and UK banks into crisis, with their already skinny balance sheets further ravaged. Inevitably Governments may have to bail out this debt, one way or another. The costs involved, then degrade the individual remaining participants in the Euro and the macro problem becomes kinetic. With the perilous state of Spain, Portugal and Ireland's economies, for the rest teetering on the edge, the fall looms larger. The Euro is literally on the rack, it's current status survival, may inevitably depend upon the depths of Angela Murkel's handbag, or more likely, devaluation by the new term for printing money, 'Quantative Easing'.