20 year rule - Howmanyleft

vacuman · 7th March 2019, 13:46

I've mentioned before the 20 year ski slope for older and relatively mundane cars (i.e. Rover - sorry).

Following a conversation about Rover 214's I looked at Howmanyleft (yes, I know the data can be flawed) and believe that the data for the 214 SI is a perfect illustration as to how quickly the last remaining examples leave our roads once beyond the age of 20.

If you look here - https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/rover_214_si - the SORN numbers remain pretty constant but the taxed numbers drop from 3,122 at Q3 of 2014 to just 601 five years (or 1826 days) later. That's nearly two a day being scrapped.

Judging by posts on here and, increasingly, on Facebook, R75 & ZT's are in the same territory now, four or so years behind the humble 214. For those looking for an investment, it's a reasonable assumption that on-the-road numbers will be just a quarter of where we are today, with clubs like this helping to offset the problems caused by sometimes complex and expensive repairs.

At least I think it's likely that good 75/ZTs will be more in demand than good 214s, assuming that our government hasn't introduced any new scrappage schemes and country-wide diesel bans.

SCP440 · 7th March 2019, 16:04

Agreed 100%, when did you last see a MK3 Astra, MK2 Mondeo or a Cavalier?

My MOT guy surprises me sometimes with cars he fails on a terminal basis but apart from accidents and scrappage schemes cars disappear off the road at roughly the rate they are registered or we would be over run more than we are. 2.5 million cars are registered annually in the UK so approximately 50,000 a week must be being scrapped.

The problem is less likely to rust these days but surprisingly more common than a lot of people think, emissions, price of parts and availability kills a lot of cars. I know of a very nice condition low mileage 8 year old Alfa that is likely to be scrapped because it needs an ECU that is over £1400 from the manufacturer and will need half a day in the dealer to get it to work.

gnu · 7th March 2019, 19:44

Now you tell me! I sold our 214 (1999) about 18 months ago. Got a 25 to replace it, but it's not as good a car, despite being a higher spec. It just doesn't feel as solid, probably due to project drive deletions.

Really, why I sold the 214 was I was spending too much time underneath it. I lost patience when I had to redo the clutch bearing 25k miles after a new clutch kit. I fixed it, got it a full MOT and sold it. That was it's last MOT; it's gone now.

stamfordzs · 7th March 2019, 21:24

Interesting, I have a recently acquired ZT-T which is my daily, also have a mk1 ZS180, had that 14 years but I also own a 20 year old Audi A6 Avant 4.2 V8 Quattro. It had been sat since August last year, chucked it in for an MOT last month to see if it was worth carrying on, to my surprise it only failed on rear number plate lights, faulty connector. Tester said nothing wrong with it, solid car. Was looking to sell it, maybe with low numbers I ought to hang on? Just shows that some marques are better built and don’t show their age unlike some?
Now if I kept every car I liked I would be a classic hoarder and the missus would have left me! I did have a nice black 216 Vitesse once, never see those now, all rotted away.

Asriel · 9th March 2019, 09:38

You can see the downward trend for all Rover 75s and MG ZTs here:

https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/family/rover_75
https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/family/mg_zt

It looks as though some people are holding on to them though, although the number on the road is declining the number SORNed is increasing

MSS · 9th March 2019, 10:59

With appropriate care, it is possible to keep any modern car going for 20ish years. Beyond that, most will need regular care.

My Omega estate is on 140k miles and will be 20 in September. It passed its last MOT with no advisories and I expect it to last until the age of 22 without requiring any significant work.

I would expect my 2005 Rover 75 to last until 20+ years of age.

All cars require significant maintenance at 8-10 years and then 15-16 years of age. In my case, I get everything done at these points and then the cars require very little attention during the next period. The cars that require regular attention are those that have not had such work done at the appropriate periods in one go. I prefer my approach as I then have 100% confidence in my cars at all times.

mbev51 · 9th March 2019, 11:35

I'm on 4.5 yrs of ownership, I use it as my daily driver so it now owes me nothing. Don't know whether to sell it or put it in my garage and go through it with a tooth comb.

7th March 2019, 13:46	#1
vacuman Gets stuck in MG ZT-T Join Date: Feb 2017 Location: St Albans Posts: 855 Thanks: 69 Thanked 236 Times in 172 Posts	20 year rule - Howmanyleft I've mentioned before the 20 year ski slope for older and relatively mundane cars (i.e. Rover - sorry). Following a conversation about Rover 214's I looked at Howmanyleft (yes, I know the data can be flawed) and believe that the data for the 214 SI is a perfect illustration as to how quickly the last remaining examples leave our roads once beyond the age of 20. If you look here - https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/vehicle/rover_214_si - the SORN numbers remain pretty constant but the taxed numbers drop from 3,122 at Q3 of 2014 to just 601 five years (or 1826 days) later. That's nearly two a day being scrapped. Judging by posts on here and, increasingly, on Facebook, R75 & ZT's are in the same territory now, four or so years behind the humble 214. For those looking for an investment, it's a reasonable assumption that on-the-road numbers will be just a quarter of where we are today, with clubs like this helping to offset the problems caused by sometimes complex and expensive repairs. At least I think it's likely that good 75/ZTs will be more in demand than good 214s, assuming that our government hasn't introduced any new scrappage schemes and country-wide diesel bans. __________________ • This vehicle was the 8,186th ZT-T to run off the production line, out of 8,249 • This vehicle was the 1,723rd ZT-T 190 + to be made out of 1,756 • This vehicle was the 149th ZT-T in Mica Blue (Ignition) (code: JGY) to be made out of 160 Mica Blue (Ignition) ZT-Ts

7th March 2019, 19:44	#3
gnu Gets stuck in MG ZT Join Date: Apr 2018 Location: Bristol Posts: 698 Thanks: 332 Thanked 164 Times in 133 Posts	Now you tell me! I sold our 214 (1999) about 18 months ago. Got a 25 to replace it, but it's not as good a car, despite being a higher spec. It just doesn't feel as solid, probably due to project drive deletions. Really, why I sold the 214 was I was spending too much time underneath it. I lost patience when I had to redo the clutch bearing 25k miles after a new clutch kit. I fixed it, got it a full MOT and sold it. That was it's last MOT; it's gone now. __________________ gnu

9th March 2019, 10:59	#6
MSS This is my second home Rover 75CDT, Jaguar XF-S 3.0V6, V'xhall Omega V6 Estate, Twintop 1.8VVT, Astra Estate and Corsa 1.2 Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Suffolk Posts: 7,085 Thanks: 283 Thanked 624 Times in 440 Posts	I agree ........... With appropriate care, it is possible to keep any modern car going for 20ish years. Beyond that, most will need regular care. My Omega estate is on 140k miles and will be 20 in September. It passed its last MOT with no advisories and I expect it to last until the age of 22 without requiring any significant work. I would expect my 2005 Rover 75 to last until 20+ years of age. All cars require significant maintenance at 8-10 years and then 15-16 years of age. In my case, I get everything done at these points and then the cars require very little attention during the next period. The cars that require regular attention are those that have not had such work done at the appropriate periods in one go. I prefer my approach as I then have 100% confidence in my cars at all times.

7th March 2019, 16:04	#2
SCP440 I really should get out more....... MG ZT-T 260 Join Date: Feb 2016 Location: Witney Posts: 2,504 Thanks: 6 Thanked 910 Times in 571 Posts	Agreed 100%, when did you last see a MK3 Astra, MK2 Mondeo or a Cavalier? My MOT guy surprises me sometimes with cars he fails on a terminal basis but apart from accidents and scrappage schemes cars disappear off the road at roughly the rate they are registered or we would be over run more than we are. 2.5 million cars are registered annually in the UK so approximately 50,000 a week must be being scrapped. The problem is less likely to rust these days but surprisingly more common than a lot of people think, emissions, price of parts and availability kills a lot of cars. I know of a very nice condition low mileage 8 year old Alfa that is likely to be scrapped because it needs an ECU that is over £1400 from the manufacturer and will need half a day in the dealer to get it to work.

7th March 2019, 21:24	#4
stamfordzs Newbie MG ZT-T, MG ZS 200 Join Date: Jan 2019 Location: Waterlooville Posts: 15 Thanks: 1 Thanked 8 Times in 2 Posts	Interesting, I have a recently acquired ZT-T which is my daily, also have a mk1 ZS180, had that 14 years but I also own a 20 year old Audi A6 Avant 4.2 V8 Quattro. It had been sat since August last year, chucked it in for an MOT last month to see if it was worth carrying on, to my surprise it only failed on rear number plate lights, faulty connector. Tester said nothing wrong with it, solid car. Was looking to sell it, maybe with low numbers I ought to hang on? Just shows that some marques are better built and don’t show their age unlike some? Now if I kept every car I liked I would be a classic hoarder and the missus would have left me! I did have a nice black 216 Vitesse once, never see those now, all rotted away.

9th March 2019, 09:38	#5
Asriel Regular poster MG ZT 190 Join Date: May 2015 Location: Nottingham Posts: 60 Thanks: 6 Thanked 14 Times in 13 Posts	You can see the downward trend for all Rover 75s and MG ZTs here: https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/family/rover_75 https://www.howmanyleft.co.uk/family/mg_zt It looks as though some people are holding on to them though, although the number on the road is declining the number SORNed is increasing

9th March 2019, 11:35	#7
mbev51 Banned Removed Join Date: Dec 2013 Location: Removed Posts: 1,343 Thanks: 171 Thanked 315 Times in 223 Posts	I'm on 4.5 yrs of ownership, I use it as my daily driver so it now owes me nothing. Don't know whether to sell it or put it in my garage and go through it with a tooth comb.