Increase infection locations - Page 4

RobSun · 4th August 2020, 10:43

Just announced the Tuesday meeting has dropped the over 50s isolating plan after a massive backlash, but the possibility of pubs closing in the future and further restrictions are still on the table so that schools can reopen. Local lockdowns with travel bans in and out of them are also still a possibility to fight, what is considered by the advisors, a second wave that could be more devastating than the first.

Many are however questioning things. In Leicester the rates of the virus has been high as we know causing the lockdown there, but the mayor and Doctors have said hospital admissions and deaths were low and hadn't increased significantly as you would expect. Last night a Bradford health worker in A&E in response to the rates in the city increasing said that there hadn't been any admissions or deaths for Covid 19 in the last week. Are these rises therefore seen due to better and increased testing so actually showing the incidence of the disease has always been higher than thought and more have had it but show no or mild symptoms?

I suppose only time will tell, but if the government want people to keep to the rules maybe they have to be more open with the figures but at the same time tell us why it is important to do what is being asked. Accept the the advice being given to get back to the daily announcements and keep us all up to date and better informed to get the messages over. That way some of those posting in the media now outright rejecting of the rules because they see a conspiracy or think its no longer a severe risk to them will look again.

mbev51 · 4th August 2020, 12:31

It’s being reported that the R rate is worryingly now over 1!

Borg Warner · 4th August 2020, 16:21

Still in the range of 0.8 - 0.9:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

Bolin · 4th August 2020, 17:14

The number of cases has increased in the past month but hospital admissions do not appear to have (yet) risen in line with that.

Perhaps the increase in cases is being driven by younger folk who are less cautious due to the lower risk to themselves?

This of course following pubs opening and being able to meet in other's homes.

So maybe these people getting infected now are going to be less ill than those in March/April, due to being younger (if that is the case now)?

And might this not actually be helpful in a way to help build up a bit of herd immunity in part of the population that is at far reduced risk of dying/severe complication/chronic resultant problems?

Just (half-priced) food for thought.

stocktake · 4th August 2020, 17:24

Published figures to date:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Borg Warner · 4th August 2020, 17:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by stocktake

Published figures to date:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Compare the UK and Spanish figures, UK 89 and 670 cases, Spain 26 and 5760. Doesn't seem right.
.

ADO282 · 4th August 2020, 19:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbev51

It’s being reported that the R rate is worryingly now over 1!

Let's examine that sentence shall we Michael ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Official Government line

The UK estimate of R is the average over very different epidemiological situations and should be regarded as a guide to the general trend rather than a description of the epidemic state.
**Low case numbers and/ or a high degree of variability in transmission across the region means these estimates are insufficiently robust to inform policy decisions.
Estimates of the growth rates and R are currently updated on a weekly basis. However, as the numbers of cases decrease, these metrics will become less helpful indicators and other measures need to be considered.

So reading between the lines, the R rate is not used to shape policy, and it usage as an indicator of transmission of covid19 is not particularly reliable.

The figures for the north west region encompassing your home town vary between .8 and 1.1, which if you look at it dispassionately are as follows.

You are looking at an increase of 1% or a decrease of 5% depending upon which part of the region in which you live has the highest proportion of testing.

Now how you choose to interpret that is normally a reasonable indicator of your typical state of mind, and how positively you view life, I for instance would look at those figures and interpret them as a good thing, as there is a higher swing toward the decrease in transmission.

Would you agree?

I'm not one for hand wringing, and prefer to enjoy life from the positive point of view.........as glib as that may appear to some, it certainly works for me.

Chris

mbev51 · 5th August 2020, 06:59

Let’s just wait and see how this pans out over the next 6 months.

mbev51 · 5th August 2020, 07:06

An interesting article in the Telegraph about the lack of border control allowing thousands in with the virus. If you look at my past posts you will see I was talking about that at the time.

Borg Warner · 5th August 2020, 07:52

Reading through the government's flu plans the closing the ports would have little effect as the virus was already in place.

4th August 2020, 17:14	#34
Bolin This is my second home Rover 75 2.5 V6 Connoisseur SE 4dr manual Wedgewood Blue 2 04-05/06/2001 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: N.E. Hampshire Posts: 4,617 Thanks: 289 Thanked 308 Times in 243 Posts	The number of cases has increased in the past month but hospital admissions do not appear to have (yet) risen in line with that. Perhaps the increase in cases is being driven by younger folk who are less cautious due to the lower risk to themselves? This of course following pubs opening and being able to meet in other's homes. So maybe these people getting infected now are going to be less ill than those in March/April, due to being younger (if that is the case now)? And might this not actually be helpful in a way to help build up a bit of herd immunity in part of the population that is at far reduced risk of dying/severe complication/chronic resultant problems? Just (half-priced) food for thought. __________________ "...the new Rover 75, which is a fabulous car......I think it looks fabulous....It's like sitting in a Rolls Royce......For me, this is the star of the show.....it looks so good" - J. Clarkson, motoring journalist on the launch of the Rover 75 in 1998.

4th August 2020, 17:24	#35
stocktake Vis Whiz Rover 75 2.5 auto Saloon Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: LEEDS Posts: 20,586 Thanks: 2,057 Thanked 3,056 Times in 1,621 Posts	Published figures to date: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ __________________ Dave... Lost a few stones and a Gall Bladder and part of a bile duct and all of my dignity in the suppository incident

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4th August 2020, 10:43	#31
RobSun Gets stuck in MGZTT Join Date: Feb 2015 Location: Bradford Posts: 529 Thanks: 148 Thanked 256 Times in 138 Posts	Just announced the Tuesday meeting has dropped the over 50s isolating plan after a massive backlash, but the possibility of pubs closing in the future and further restrictions are still on the table so that schools can reopen. Local lockdowns with travel bans in and out of them are also still a possibility to fight, what is considered by the advisors, a second wave that could be more devastating than the first. Many are however questioning things. In Leicester the rates of the virus has been high as we know causing the lockdown there, but the mayor and Doctors have said hospital admissions and deaths were low and hadn't increased significantly as you would expect. Last night a Bradford health worker in A&E in response to the rates in the city increasing said that there hadn't been any admissions or deaths for Covid 19 in the last week. Are these rises therefore seen due to better and increased testing so actually showing the incidence of the disease has always been higher than thought and more have had it but show no or mild symptoms? I suppose only time will tell, but if the government want people to keep to the rules maybe they have to be more open with the figures but at the same time tell us why it is important to do what is being asked. Accept the the advice being given to get back to the daily announcements and keep us all up to date and better informed to get the messages over. That way some of those posting in the media now outright rejecting of the rules because they see a conspiracy or think its no longer a severe risk to them will look again.

4th August 2020, 12:31	#32
mbev51 Banned Removed Join Date: Dec 2013 Location: Removed Posts: 1,343 Thanks: 171 Thanked 315 Times in 223 Posts	It’s being reported that the R rate is worryingly now over 1!

4th August 2020, 16:21	#33
Borg Warner I really should get out more....... None Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Suffolk Posts: 2,579 Thanks: 494 Thanked 657 Times in 402 Posts	Still in the range of 0.8 - 0.9: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

5th August 2020, 06:59	#38
mbev51 Banned Removed Join Date: Dec 2013 Location: Removed Posts: 1,343 Thanks: 171 Thanked 315 Times in 223 Posts	Let’s just wait and see how this pans out over the next 6 months.

5th August 2020, 07:06	#39
mbev51 Banned Removed Join Date: Dec 2013 Location: Removed Posts: 1,343 Thanks: 171 Thanked 315 Times in 223 Posts	An interesting article in the Telegraph about the lack of border control allowing thousands in with the virus. If you look at my past posts you will see I was talking about that at the time.

5th August 2020, 07:52	#40
Borg Warner I really should get out more....... None Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Suffolk Posts: 2,579 Thanks: 494 Thanked 657 Times in 402 Posts	Reading through the government's flu plans the closing the ports would have little effect as the virus was already in place.